When will it
actually ship?
Backlog points, average velocity, and sprint length in. A realistic finish date out, with a P50 best-guess and a P90 conservative date so you can talk to stakeholders honestly.
Your forecast inputs
Std dev measures how much your velocity swings sprint to sprint. Lower = more predictable. Healthy teams sit under 25% of mean.
Forecast
Verdict
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The math
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Auto-update this forecast every sprint in SprintFlint
SprintFlint recomputes velocity, remaining points, and finish date on every closed ticket. No re-pasting numbers, no stale roadmap.
Start Free, 300 Tickets IncludedSprint forecasting FAQ
Why two finish dates (P50 and P90)?
P50 is the midpoint: half the time you'll ship before this date, half the time after. P90 is the conservative date; there's only a 10% chance you'll slip past it. Use P50 for internal planning; share P90 with stakeholders if you don't want to constantly re-negotiate the deadline. More on the maths in forecasting with p85.
How do I calculate velocity standard deviation?
Take your last 5-6 sprints' completed points. Calculate the mean. For each sprint, subtract the mean and square the result. Average those squares, then take the square root. Or paste them into a spreadsheet and use STDEV. If your velocity swings widely (std dev > 25% of mean), the forecast becomes much less reliable; fix the variability before trusting the date. The Velocity Calculator does this for you from a paste of recent sprints.
What if the team's velocity will change mid-project?
This calculator assumes velocity stays roughly constant. If you're hiring, ramp 10–20% over 2-3 sprints, not on day one. If you're losing people, drop velocity proportionally. Re-run the forecast after every change; agile forecasts decay fast.
How often should I re-forecast?
After every sprint. Velocity, scope, and team shape all change. A forecast made 4 sprints ago and never updated will be wrong by sprint 5. Tools like SprintFlint update this automatically as work moves.
The forecast says 12+ sprints. What now?
Long-runway forecasts (10+ sprints) are mostly noise. Either slice the scope into a smaller MVP, raise the team size, or commit to the date as a "ballpark, not promise". Anything else is wishful thinking.
Want this built into your sprint board?
SprintFlint surfaces velocity, capacity, burndown, and cycle time automatically; no calculator, no spreadsheet, no plugin maze. Free for the first 300 tickets. No credit card.